Regression Analysis of the Impact of Disaggregated Government Expenditure on Agricultural Sector Output in Nigeria
The study used dis-aggregated approach to look at the impact of each of government recurrent expenditure on agriculture, government capital expenditure on agriculture, and government capital expenditure on social community services, each forming a specific objective of the study, based on time series data for the period 1986-2022 collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin of 2023. The study used the autoregressive distributed lag method (ARDL) to estimate the multiple regression model which had agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) as the dependent variable to represent agricultural output, whereas the other variables mentioned above were the independent variables. The study found that government recurrent expenditure on agriculture has a negative impact on economic growth in the long run because it results in a loss of -0.02 per cent loss of agricultural output growth; government capital expenditure on agriculture significantly contributes to agricultural growth in Nigeria with the coefficient of 0.095; and government capital expenditure on social and community services significantly contributes to agricultural growth in Nigeria with the coefficient of 0.4496. The government should reduce its recurrent expenditure on agriculture due to the negative impact on the agricultural sector. Those recurrent expenditure are unproductive so the government should keep it low. The Nigerian government should increase its capital expenditure on agriculture so as to boost agricultural output or the performance of the agricultural sector. The federal government should increase its capital expenditure on social and community services. Such services include agriculture extension services such as research and development, advisory services and provision of improved seedlings.